基于Kriging模型的综合能源系统规划方法

综合能源系统将多种能源进行耦合,对电、气、冷、热等多种能量进行多维度的协调管理和分配,是能源互联网在区域内的具体实现。提出了一种基于改进型Kriging模型的综合能源系统规划方法。首先建立了综合能源系统各主要设备的多能流网络模型,结合混沌采样算法构建了一种改进型Kriging模型,通过模型拟合所得到的局部极值点和最速下降点等线索来搜索价值最大的采样点,对原模型进行修正,从而快速准确地得到系统最佳规划方案。通过优化计算可以得到各主要设备的最佳容量配置和运行策略,在满足用户多种能源需求的前提下,最大限度地降低系统投资和用能成本,促进多种能源的高效利用和可持续发展。

A Planning Method of Integrated Energy System Based on Kriging Model

Integrated energy system couples a variety of energy sources and conducts multi-dimensional coordinated management and distribution of various types of energy,such as electrical,cooling and heating energy and gas,which is a concrete realization of energy internet in the region.This paper proposes an integrated energy system planning method based on improved Kriging model.Firstly,a multi-energy flow network model for all major devices of the integrated energy system was established,and an improved Kriging model is proposed in combination with chaotic algorithm.By searching obtained local extremum points and the steepest descent points as clues to find the most valuable sampling points,the original model is modified to obtain the optimal solution of the planning problem quickly and accurately.Through optimization calculation,capacity configuration and operational strategy of major devices are obtained.System investment and energy cost is reduced under the premise of satisfying energy demand of users,and efficient use and sustainable development of energy is promoted.