基于停电序列多状态模型的含微网配电系统可靠性评估

目前,含微网配电系统可靠性评估方法中,模拟法耗时长收敛性差,解析法难以处理储能荷电状态的时变过程和孤岛微网动态切负荷过程。针对现有评估方法存在的问题,提出一种新的解析评估方法。定义了孤岛微网停电序列的概念并提出了停电序列多状态模型,该模型用于解析评估岛内用户的停电情况;然后基于前向算法和多状态模型给出了停电序列概率的计算方法;最后结合传统配电系统的解析评估方法,提出一种基于停电序列多状态模型的解析评估算法。算例分析表明,相比于序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法,算法能在保证精度的同时节约98%的计算耗时,且稳定性更好。最后,分别分析了孤岛持续时间状态总数对算法性能的影响以及风/光/储容量对岛内负荷可靠性的影响。

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Containing Microgrids Based on Multi-State Power Interruption Sequence Model

In reliability evaluation of distribution networks containing microgrids,two methods,namely simulation and analysis,are widely used.However,simulation method costs too much computation time because of its poor convergence,and analytical method is difficult to deal with time-varying process.To solve these problems,this paper proposed a new analytical method to evaluate reliability of distribution network containing microgrids.The concept of power interruption sequence is defined and its multi-state model is proposed to evaluate hosting customers’outage situation.A calculation method for probability of power interruption sequence is proposed based on forward algorithm and multi-state model.Based on multi-state model of power interruption sequence and traditional analytical algorithm,a new analytical algorithm is put forward.Case studies show that,compared with simulation method,the proposed algorithm can reduce about 98%computation time with high accuracy.In addition,sensitivity analyses of capacity influence of wind,photovoltaic and energy storage on reliability are conducted.