AP1000核电厂厂外剂量风险定量化分析

为了分析AP1000核电厂各种潜在的严重事故对周围公众的影响，采用MACCS程序模拟释入大气中气载放射性物质的弥散过程，对6种代表性释放类别进行剂量风险定量化分析。计算结果表明，事故后24 h内厂址边界附近公众的急性红骨髓剂量风险为1.96×10^-7 Sv/（堆?年），该风险大部分来自安全壳旁通释放(BP)；早期健康效应风险在10^-10~10^-9 Sv/(堆?年)，且随着与反应堆距离的增大降幅明显；集体全身有效剂量风险为6.94×10^-4 人?Sv/（堆?年），引发的癌症致死风险非常低。研究结果还表明，核事故后及时撤离将显著降低公众剂量风险。

Offsite Dose Risk Quantification Analysis for AP1000 Nuclear Power Plant

In order to estimate the potential offsite effect caused by severe accidents of AP1000 nuclear power plant, radiation dose risk was quantified, which takes into account six representative release categories. Atmospheric transport with airborne radioactive material was simulated by MACCS code. The results show that acute red marrow dose risk at the site boundary is 1.96×10^-7 Sv/(reactor?year), which mainly results from containment bypass release (BP). The early health effect risks are 10^-10-10^-9 Sv/(reactor?year), and the risks decrease obviously with the increase of distance from reactor. Population whole body effective dose risk is 6.94×10^-4 person?Sv/(reactor?year), and the corresponding cancer fatality risk is quite low. The study result also indicates that timely evacuation after the nuclear accident can reduce public dose risk significantly.