| 基于分位点回归的风电功率波动区间分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李智,韩学山,杨明,钟世民. 基于分位点回归的风电功率波动区间分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2011, 35(3): 83-87 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李智 韩学山 杨明 钟世民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市,250061
2. 青岛供电公司,山东省青岛市,256660 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于风电功率具有随机性的特点,因此,仅对其期望进行分析难以反映其特征,电网运行风险也难以准确把握.为此,基于分位点回归分析理论,对风电功率波动区间,通过支持向量机自适应地选取回归函数,建立风电功率分位点回归模型,并基于内点法对该模型进行求解,实现了对未来时刻风电功率的波动区间分析.最后,采用所述方法对烟台地区电网的某风...
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| 关 键 词： | 风力发电 区间分析 分位点回归 支持向量机 风险决策 风电功率预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-07-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-01-17 |
Wind Power Fluctuation Interval Analysis Based on Quantile Regression |
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| LI Zhi,HAN Xueshan,YANG Ming,ZHONG Shimin. Wind Power Fluctuation Interval Analysis Based on Quantile Regression[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2011, 35(3): 83-87 |
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| Authors: | LI Zhi HAN Xueshan YANG Ming ZHONG Shimin |
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| Affiliation: | LI Zhi~1,HAN Xueshan~1,YANG Ming~1,ZHONG Shimin~2 (1.Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China,2.Qingdao Power Supply Company,Qingdao 256660,China) |
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| Abstract: | Wind power is stochastic and is difficult to reflect its characteristics only by its expectation.Consequently the power grid risk is difficult to analyze.A new model based on the quantile regression analysis theory is proposed,in which a regression function is selected self-adaptively through support vector machine in each wind power fluctuation interval,and the interior point method is adopted to solve this model.The future wind power fluctuation interval analysis is realized.At last,the proposed method is... |
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| Keywords: | wind power generation interval analysis quantile regression support vector machine risk decisicn wind power forecasting |
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