基于Markov的石漠化景观演变特征分析与预测

石漠化是岩溶山区脆弱生态系统与人类不合理经济活动相互作用而造成的土地退化过程,是一个动态演变的过程,分析石漠化演变特征,预测其发展趋势,对石漠化的治理和防御将起到重要的促进作用。以贵州六枝特区1990年和2010年遥感解译石漠化数据为基础,分析石漠化演变特征,运用马尔科夫法预测其发展趋势。结果表明:①1990—2010年,研究区石漠化演化以不变型为主,占研究区喀斯特面积的46.79%;②通过预测,到2030年轻度石漠化为研究区主导石漠化景观类型,无石漠化和潜在石漠化面积大量减少,轻度和中度石漠化面积大量增加;③在现有模式下,研究区预测时段内生态环境将进一步恶化,应加大土地利用方式和治理模式的调整,重点加强潜在石漠化区域的生态保护,避免石漠化生态修复进入死循环模式。

Analysis and Forecast of the Evolution Features of RockyDesertification Landscape by Markov Model

Karst rocky desertification is a process of land degradation and dynamic evolution resulted from the fragile ecosystem in Karst mountainous regions and the improper economic activities of human beings. Predicting its development trend would improve the control and defense against Karst rocky desertification. According to the Karst rocky desertification data interpreted from the remote sensing images obtained in 1990 and 2010, we analysed the features of Karst rocky desertification evolution and predicted its development trend by using Markov Model. Results showed that: 1) from 1990 to 2010, those invariable which accounted for 46.79% of the Karst region predominated the evolution of Karst rocky desertification in the study area; 2) by prediction, in 2030, light rocky desertification would predominate the study area, the area of non-desertification and potential desertification would decrease remarkably, and those of light and moderate would increase greatly; 3) under the present mode, the eco-environment of the study area would deteriorate in the forecast period. We should adjust the land use patterns and the governance mode appropriately and strengthen the ecological protection in the potential rocky desertification region in case that the ecological restoration falls into an infinite loop.