| Abstract: | Focusing on improving the accuracy of existing life prediction models for optoelectronic products, the three‐parameter Weibull right approximation method (TPWRAM) was employed to substitute exponential function based on the least square method in the analysis and two‐staged methods. Two optimized models were established (Model I and Model II), based on maximum likelihood estimation and the Monte Carlo method, respectively. One group of conventional life tests (CLTs) of vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) were conducted to collect luminance degradation data for each sample, and the two optimized models were applied to achieve VFD life prediction and obtain mean time to failure, median life, and confidence intervals. The results indicate that the CLT test design is correct and feasible, the amount of data on luminance degradation is large, and the test data selection method is reasonable. Model I and Model II optimized by TPWRAM both reflect the VFD luminance variation law well, and the predicted life approaches VFD service life from user feedback, proving that the two models are precise, and thus, can provide technical references for researchers and engineers regarding aspects of life prediction. |
