村镇污水处理 PPP 项目投资决策

由于村镇污水处理 PPP 项目具有污水不易集中、资金投入多、项目投资回报率低、投资回收期长等问题，使该类项目存在较高的投资风险。在部分风险由政府承担的条件下，依据投资风险要素，建立了村镇污水处理 PPP 项目的投资决策模型。应用蒙特卡罗方法对项目的净现值等指标进行模拟，依据对仿真结果的分析，预测出项目的风险大小并提出项目的最低保水量要求，从而对项目的可行性进行判断。通过案例数据验证了模型的可行性，并将模拟结果与其他投资决策分析方法进行比较表明了该模型的科学性，以期为民间资本对村镇污水处理 PPP 项目做出正确的投资决策提供依据

Investment Decision-making in Rural Sewage Treatment PPP Projects

Due to the issues such as low concentration of sewage，large capital investment，low return on investment and longpayback period， rural sewage treatment PPP projects have a high level of investment risk. Under the condition that some risks aretaken by the government and based on the investment risk factors, the investment decision-making model of rural sewage treatmentPPP projects is established. Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the net present value and other indicators of these projects.Based on the analysis of the simulation results, the risk level of these projects is predicted and the minimum water requirement ofthese projects is proposed, with the help of which the feasibility of these projects can be judged. The feasibility of the model isverified through case study, and the comparison between the simulation results and other investment decision analysis methodsshows that the model is scientific. Accordingly, this study provides a basis for private capital to make correct investment decisions onrural sewage treatment PPP projects.