中国钢材市场发展趋势及对铁矿石市场的影响

依据我国国内钢铁生产和消费、钢材外贸、GDP的增长和固定资产投资等方面的数据，分析了钢铁工业产能过剩的现实和趋势。考虑到科技进步，并列举了工业、农业和交通运输业等国民经济发展的有关数据，说明“十一五”期间国内钢铁市场需求还将增长，但增幅将逐年回落。预计2010年需要生产钢5亿t。用全球经济、全球钢铁产量变化和国内钢材进出口结构等有关数据，分析了“十一五”期间中国钢铁市场的不稳定因素，并预计钢材价格必将不稳定。同时根据钢铁市场状况、铁矿采选建设和生产状况以及进口矿石量等，说明铁矿石将较长时期保持较高价位，不可能大幅回落。

Effect of China's Steel Market Development Trend on Iron Ore Market

The reality and trend of the surplus of the production capacity of iron and steel industry are analyzed based on the data relating to China's iron and steel production and consumption,foreign trade of steel,GDP increase and the investment on fixed assets.By citing the data of industry,agriculture and transportation that are related to the national economy development and by taking into consideration of the scientific and technological advance,it is illustrated that the domestic demand on the iron and steel in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period will still grow but with a yearly decreasing increase range.It is expected that 500 Mt steel will be needed in 2010.The factors influencing the stability of China's steel price in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period are analyzed with the data relating to the change in the global economy and global iron and steel production and China's steel import and export structure,and it is predicted that the steel price will inevitably be unstable.Meanwhile,in light of the iron and steel market conditions,the construction and production conditions of iron ore mining and processing,and the amount of the imported iron ore,it is anticipated that the iron ore price will be kept at a high level for a long time with no possibility of falling greatly.