SPE–PRMS准则中资源量/储量不确定性表征分析

中国现行的油气储量标准关于不确定性的论述存在一定的缺陷,国土资源部和三大石油公司正在尝试将SPE–PRMS准则中的优势理念与方法引入国内储量评估与管理体系。"不确定性"是该准则的核心,充分体现了石油资源量/储量评估的特点。通过分析SPE–PRMS准则中资源量/储量的不确定性表征,论述了应用概率法、确定性增量法和类比法量化表征不确定性的关键技术要点,并通过评估实例与国内储量标准计算结果进行对比分析,为SPE-PRMS准则在国内推广应用提供借鉴。

Analysis of resources and reserves estimation uncertainty characterization according to SPE-PRMS criterion

At present,China's resources and reserves management department and the three major petroleum companies are trying to introduce the advantage concept and methods of SPE-PRMS to domestic resources and reserves estimation system.'Uncertainty' is the core concept of the SPE-PRMS,which fully reflects the characteristics of petroleum resources and reserves estimation.By analyzing the uncertainty characterization for resources and reserves evaluation using SPE-PRMS criterion in this paper,the keys of application of probabilistic method deterministic incremental method and analogy method were discussed to describe resources and reserves uncertainty,the real cases estimation were analyzed and compared to Chinese current resources and reserves standard results,which provided a good reference for the application of the SPE-PRMS criterion in China.