水文模型组合预报应用研究

针对水文模型结构误差和目前各大中型水库流域的防洪风险分析与决策方式，在当前应用广泛的洪水实时预报系统基础上，融入模型加权法的思想，采用一种比较简单易行和实用的“模型组合预报”方案，可以一定程度上提高洪水预报结果的精度和稳定性，也符合防洪风险分析与决策的思想．并在长潭水库流域最近几年的防台风洪水预报中进行了实践应用，实际应用效果良好．

Hydrological Models Combination for Forecasting Application Research

A practical system integrated with model weighted approach, so-called ＂Model Group Prediction＂ is introduced in this essay based on the current flood real-time prediction system in term of the structural error of hydrological models and flood prevention risk analysis on large and medium reservoir valley. The application of the new system turns out to be effective in flood prevention prediction within Changtai Reservoir Valley in recent years with high accuracy and stability.