考虑入库洪水随机过程的梯级水库防洪优化调度

针对梯级水库防洪优化调度求解过程中存在的入库洪水过程的随机性，以及优化调度模型求解的复杂性这两方面的问题，建立了基于Copula函数的梯级各地区洪水的联合分布函数，通过随机模拟方法得到梯级水库的入库洪水过程；建立了梯级水库防洪优化调度模型，并提出了基于并行搜索思想的PDP算法进行求解。清江梯级水库实例研究结果表明，基于Copula函数的随机模拟方法，能充分考虑洪水地区组成方式的多样性和随机性，从而能模拟对梯级防洪调度最不利的情况；PDP算法比文中其他算法更容易收敛到全局最优解；较常规调度，梯级水库防洪优化调度可进一步降低下游地区的防洪风险。

Optimal Flood Control Operation for the Cascade Reservoirs Considering Stochastic Reservoir Inflow Hydrograph

There are mainly two difficulties in the process of solving the optimal flood control operation for the cascade reservoirs, which are the uncertainty of reservoir inflow forecasts and the complexity of solution for the optimization model. To solve these problems, a joint distribution function of upper and interval basin floods was established by using copula function and inflow hydrographs of cascade reservoirs were obtained by stochastic simulation method. Furthermore, a flood control optimization model for cascade reservoirs and a new algorithm, named Paralleled DE and PSO (PDP), were proposed. The Qingjiang cascade reservoirs were selected as the case study. The results show that the stochastic simulation method based on the copula function, by which the variety and randomness of regional flood composition is considered, can simulate the worst situation for flood control operation. The proposed PDP algorithm is much easier to gain the optimum global solution than the other algorithms presented in this paper. The flood control risk at the downstream can be further reduced by this optimal flood control operation model for the cascade reservoirs.