汾河水库淤积趋势研究

采用1962年到2010年汾河水库淤积量数据研究了汾河水库的淤积趋势,结果显示汾河水库淤积的增长率趋缓。在此基础上,应用最小二乘法拟合出汾河水库淤积量随时间变化趋势的数学模型,相关系数检验结果显示该数学模型拟合度很好。通过对上游来水量、汛期来水含沙量、水库运行方式的定性分析进一步说明该数学模型的合理性。同时,应用该数学模型对汾河水库未来10～50年进行模拟预测,提出汾河水库改善运行模式以缓解淤积问题的建议。

Research on the Tendency of Sedimentation in Fenhe Reservior

This paper deals with the tendency of sedimentation at the basis of the sedimentation data in Fenhe Reservior from 1962 to 2010.The result shows that the growth rate of sedimentation in Fenhe Reservoir is slowing.And this paper establishes a mathematical model of the Fenhe Reservoir siltation trend over time by the least squares method.The correlation coefficient test results show that the mathematical model is highly fitting.This paper further illustrates the rationality of the mathematical model by analyzing the data of annual runoff,sediment load and the reservoir operation mode.In this paper,the mathmatical model is used to predict the sedimentation in Fenhe Reservior over the next 10-50 years.And this paper suggests improving the reservior operation mode to ease the problem of sedimentation.