城市人口规模的战略视角分析——以武汉人口规模专题编制为例

城市总体规划具有调控各类空间资源的本质特征,城市人口规模研究作为城市总体规划的基础性研究应能体现政策属性.但长期以来,业界对城市总体规划中人口规模研究的普遍认识是一种以人口预测为核心的研究,关注重点也集中于预测方法的“客观”与“科学”上.基于城市总体规划是协调社会不同利益的公共政策属性的认识,研究认为其中的人口规模研究不应仅停留于采用技术手段预测一种未来城市发展的可能之上,而应积极推动其向政策支撑、向处理城市发展各要素之间的相互关系转变,并以武汉人口规模专题编制为例,探讨了一种寻求各类城市发展要素制约下有利于城市健康发展的城市人口规模的研究方法.研究发现,城市人口规模高低方案与城市发展目标之间的关系各不相同,城市人口规模目标的确定需要做出抉择.

Strategy Analysis of City Population Size: A Case Study of Wuhan

Urban comprehensive planning aims to allocate and regulate spatial resources based on projection of urban population size,and researches on population change should embody policy attributes.Conventional population researches in the comprehensive planning process is based on "objective" and "scientific" of forecasting methods.As planning increasingly acquires public policy attribute,this research suggests that urban population projection should take into consideration of policy support and relationships among various players in the urban development process,rather than being treated as a simple technical exercise.Taking Wuhan as an example,this study puts forward a method based on scenario analysis under multifactorial constrains.It is found that projected urban population size varies with urban development objectives.Policy makers need to make choices among different scenarios.