基于新标准的中国城市规模等级结构演变研究

城市规模等级结构反映了城市发育的基本特征,是全国城镇体系规划编制的基础工作。传统研究多采用户籍城区非农业人口数据,忽视人口流动,存在统计偏差。普查数据中城区人口的统计口径接近城市实体概念,应成为今后判断城市人口规模的主要指标。基于统计口径校正后的第五次、第六次人口普查城区人口数据,运用集中度和贡献率分析了2000-2010年我国城市规模等级结构和空间分布的演变规律。研究表明:大中小城市人口规模变化不协调,大城市数量少,但规模比重大、增速快、增长贡献率高,中小城市数量众多,但规模比重小、增速相对缓慢、贡献率较低,提高中小城市的人口吸纳能力应当成为今后城市化发展的重要方向;城市规模等级变化活跃,晋级、晋档城市的城市建设跟进和降档城市的人口收缩问题应当得到关注;分省尺度下城市规模等级结构存在明显的空间差异,东部省份城市规模提升速度明显高于中西部省份,城市政策制定应考虑不同类型省份的城市规模结构特点。

RESEARCH ON THE EVOLUTION OF CITY-SIZE HIERARCHY IN CHINA BASED ON NEW STANDARD

Research on city-size hierarchy,which reflects the fundamental feature of urban growth,is the basic work for China's urban system planning compilation.There is statistical bias because traditional studies often use registered nonagricultural population in the urban area as the indexes for city population size,whereas neglecting the mobility of population.In fact,the population in the urban area in census data that is close to a city's population should be considered as the basic index for city-size classification in China.This paper analyzes the evolution of city-size hierarchy and spatial distribution of cities from 2000 to 2010 using concentration ratio and contribution rate based on the data of urban areas in the revised fifth and sixth nationwide population censuses.Based on that,it draws the following conclusions.Firstly,small,medium-sized,and large cities witness imbalanced changes in population sizes-large cities have a large population,rapid population growth,and higher growth contribution rate despite their small proportion;despite their large quantity,small and medium-sized cities have a small population,slow population growth,and lower contribution rate.Therefore,small and medium-sized cities should promote their population absorption capacity in the future.Secondly,because of the rapid changes in city-size hierarchy,due attention should be paid to the corresponding urban construction and the increasing or decreasing of population.Thirdly,the changes of city-size hierarchy have obvious spatial differences-eastern provinces have higherlevel urbanization than that of middle and western provinces in China.As a result,urban development policy should be based on the characteristics of citysize hierarchy.