盐岩地下储气库地表沉降风险失效概率的计算分析

盐岩地下储气库在运营过程中，因盐腔蠕变体积收缩引起地表沉降变形，从而对盐矿区地面设施(如建筑物、桥梁、路基等)产生不良影响，为了评估该影响，建立盐岩地下储气库地表沉降风险失效概率的计算方法，即：首先通过数值计算获得盐岩储气库的体积收缩率，然后通过SRAKA SCHOBER矿山法获得盐腔体积收缩引起的地表沉降，并建立地表沉降风险功能函数表达式，最后采用基于随机变量的蒙特卡洛方法可计算获得盐腔体积收缩引起的地表沉降风险失效概率。将该方法应用于金坛盐岩地下储气库，有效获得储气库体积收缩引发的地表沉降对盐矿区地面建筑的影响，为储气库区地面设施风险安全控制提供理论依据。

CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS FOR FAILURE RISK PROBABILITY OF GROUND SETTLEMENT ON AREA OF SALT ROCK UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE

During the operation of salt rock underground gas storages，ground settlement would be generated due to the volume shrinkage of salt rock caverns，and that would made a negative impact on the facilities on the ground(such as buildings，bridges，roadbed，etc.). In order to assess the impact，the method for calculating the failure probability of ground settlement in the area of salt rock underground gas storage was established. Firstly，the volume shrinkage of the salt rock caverns was obtained by numerical calculation. Then the SRAKA SCHOBER mining method was used to obtain the surface settlement caused by the volume shrinkage，and the performance function of the risk was established. Finally，the failure risk probability of ground settlement can be calculated by Monte Carlo method based on random variables. The method was applied to the Jintan underground gas storage in salt rock，the impact of the facilities on the ground settlement was effectively accessed，and the theoretical basis for the safety control of the salt mine zone was also provided.