考虑不确定性的电力电量平衡分析

针对水火电力系统的中长期电力电量平衡分析问题，利用多场景建模方法描述中长期来水和负荷预测信息的不确定性，并以系统总的电力电量缺额最小化为优化目标，综合考虑系统约束、机组及机组集合约束、燃煤计划约束、水库用水计划约束等多种约束条件，建立了水火电力系统的多场景中长期电力电量平衡分析模型。最后，结合实际水火电力系统的算例，对所提模型进行了验证分析。结果表明，多场景模型制定的调度方案更具适用性，水火联合发电能够更好地保证系统的安全稳定运行。

Electric Power and Energy Balance Analysis Considering Uncertainty

In connection with electric power and energy balance analysis of a hydro-thermal system, the uncertainty of the medium-long term runoff and the load forecasting information is described in the method of multi scene modeling.And the minimization of the power shortage in total system is taken as the optimization target,thereafer a medium-long term electric power and energy balance analysis model of hydro thermal power system is established,with the consideration of various constraint conditions such as system constraints,units and units set constraint,coal and reservoir water planning constraints.Finally,the model is validated and analyzed in combination with practical examples of hydro thermal power system.The results show that the scheduling scheme of multi-scenario model is more applicable and the joint generation of hydro thermal power is better at ensuring the safety and stable operation of the system.