| 基于ARMA模型的地质勘查投入影响机理研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范继涛. 基于ARMA模型的地质勘查投入影响机理研究[J]. 中国矿业, 2016, 25(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 范继涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国国土资源经济研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查 矿产资源勘查开发(综合)区划项目 资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2001~2012年的时间序列数据,对我国油气和非油气固体矿产地质勘查投入、矿业产值间的因果关系进行了检验,建立了地质勘查投入的ARMA模型。研究表明,对勘查总投入和非油气固体矿产来说,矿产品产值是勘查投入的单向格兰杰原因;油气资源勘查投入和矿产品产值之间不存在格兰杰因果关系;对于非油气固体矿产来讲,前两个年度勘查投入对当年投入影响方向相反,程度不同。
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| 关 键 词： | ARMA模型 勘查投入 影响机理 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-04-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-07-04 |
Research on the impact mechanism of geological exploration investment based on ARMA model |
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| FAN Ji-tao. Research on the impact mechanism of geological exploration investment based on ARMA model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2016, 25(9) |
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| Authors: | FAN Ji-tao |
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| Affiliation: | Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economic |
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| Abstract: | By using the time series data of 2001-2012 years,this paper test the causality between mineral exploration investment and mining industry production value, and establish the ARMA model of geological exploration investment. Research shows that for the total investment and non-oil solid mineral exploration, mineral production is one-way Granger cause of investment in exploration; there is no Granger causality between oil and gas resources exploration investment and mineral production; in terms of the non-oil solid mineral, the exploration investment of the first two years have different influence on to the current. |
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| Keywords: | ARMA model exploration investment |
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