上海市发电量叠合预测模型的研究

分析了上海市发电量数据的特点，给出了叠合模型。应用2阶对称滑动平均方法提取了趋势项。根据叠合模型可进一步分解出周期项和随机项。利用数据资料对上海市发电量作了实例计算。并将叠合模型与ARIMA的预测结果进行了比较。预测结果表明此方法简单有效。对于含有趋势性和周期性的时间序列辨识、预测具有一定的参考价值。

Study on Additive Forecasting Model of Electricity Generation in Shanghai

The electricity generation characteristics of Shanghai are analyzed and an additive model is given.The trend term is drawn from the data by second order symmetric moving average method.Then,the periodic term and stochastic term are resolved based on additive model.With the electricity generation data of Shanghai,the forecasting calculations are done as an example.The forecasting calculation results of additive model and ARIMA are compared.It shows the simpleness and effectiveness of this method.It is suitable for the identifying and forecasting of time series with trend and period.