基于BDD算法的某系统事故发生概率分析

随着现代武器系统趋于大型化和复杂化,利用事故树进行系统安全性分析日益困难。本文重点研究了基于BDD的FTA优化求解算法,并利用贝叶斯方法研究小样本的独特优势,提出蒙特卡洛仿真方法求解底事件发生概率,进而利用BDD求解系统顶事件发生概率的方法。

Risk Probability Analysis Based On Binary Decision Diagrams

With the development of modern weapon systems in large-scale and complexity,the analysis of system safety based on FTA becomes more and more difficulty.The research on the optimization in the modal of FTA based on Binary Decision Diagram(BDD) algorithm and the special advantage of the small sample analysis based on Bayse was done in this paper,and brought out the method of calculating the occurrence probability of top event based on the monte-carlo simulation in calculate the occurrence probability of bottom event.