分期径流丰枯遭遇对大伙房水库引水条件的影响

大伙房水库是保障辽宁中南部城市社会经济发展的重要水利工程,而径流条件是影响大伙房水库功能发挥的关键因素。依据大伙房水库及引调水水源区31a的长系列(1980～2010年)径流资料,采用数理统计法及Copula函数分析大伙房水库及引调水水源区径流特点及其分期丰枯补偿特性,基于此,对大伙房水库跨流域引水条件进行系统总结。结果表明:引调水水源区与大伙房水库在全年、春季、汛期、枯水期的径流丰枯同步遭遇概率均在70%以上;引调水水源区在各分期内有62.5%的概率可为大伙房水库提供径流补偿。在今后的研究中,应结合大伙房水库自身多年调节的性能,进一步研究不同径流补偿条件下的引水策略,制定丰、平、枯水年径流补偿条件下的引水调度线。研究结果可为水库经济引水及综合效益发挥提供参考。

Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of wet-dry runoff in different periods on water diversion conditions of Dahuofang Reservoir

Dahuofang Reservoir (DHF Reservoir) plays an important role in supporting social and economic development in central and southern Liaoning Province. The runoff is crucial to DHF Reservoir operation. In this study, on the basis of the runoff data from1980 to 2010, we investigated runoff characteristics of DHF Reservoir and water source area of water diversion project by mathematical statistics method. We also analyzed compensation characteristics for water diversion to DHF Reservoir in different periods by using copula function and summarized inter-basin water transfer conditions to DHF Reservoir. The results show that for the DHF Reservoir and water source area, synchronous frequencies of wet-dry runoff in whole year, spring, flood season and dry season were all more than 70%. The probability is 62.5% for water transfer from water source area to DHF Reservoir in different periods. In the future studies, we need to take into account the yearly regulation function of DHF Reservoir, and research water diversion strategies under different runoff compensation for DHF Reservoir in order to prepare water-diversion plans in flood, normal and dry seasons. This paper can provide references for economical operation of reservoirs water diversion and reservoir comprehensive benefits maximization.