中国天然气产业链“十二五”整体规划透视

中国近期陆续发布了由天然气产业链“十二五”系列规划构成的产业链整体规划，整个产业链“十二五”期间的发展蓝图已清晰可见。整体规划的背景主要基于：需要应对国内外减排双重压力、国内经济发展水平迈上新台阶、产业链可持续发展面临一系列挑战等。整体规划的亮点体现在：①天然气总规划供应能力对规划消费量有保障，从资源量到消费量逐级留有余地，增加供气保障能力，非常规天然气资源开发和开发能力储备为“十二五”以后建立资源保障序列；②以天然气基础设施为重点，扩大用气地区，增加对用气区的输气能力，以多种手段拓展天然气利用，强化产业链各环节的有效衔接；③开展多种形式的探索，推动产业链向竞争性结构演变。整体规划尚有的缺失为：①能源管理体制难以适应发展的需要，整体规划受到分割，关键制度的变迁没有时间表和路线图，顶层制度设计不够；②天然气产业链结构发展目标不明，对未来走向判断困难，如对生产商的上、中、下游一体化如何规范等没有明确意见。

Perspective on the overall plan of a complete industrial chain in natural gas sector during the 12th Five-Year Plan in China

China has successively released a series of schemes constituting an overall plan of a complete industrial chain for natural gas industry, the blueprint of which can be seen clearly during the national 12^th Five Year Plan. This overall plan is formulated under such background as facing global and domestic pressure in emission reduction; improving the economic development to a new level; keeping the sustainable development of the industrial chain, and so on. The highlights of the overall plan are reflected in the following three aspects. (1) The total planned supply of natural gas can ensure the planned consumption. From the resource reserves to consumption capacity, the overall plan leaves adequate room to enhance the support capability of gas supply. The development of unconventional natural gas resources as well as development capacity reserves provides a support for sequence of resource supply after the 12^th Five Year Plan. (2) With the infrastructures to be perfected as the focus, natural gas usage areas will be expanded, natural gas transmission capacity will be enhanced, natural gas will be utilized in various ways, and the effective connection of each part in the industrial chain will be strengthened. (3) More exploring ways will be tried to promote the evolution of the industrial chain towards a competitive structure. However, some defects can be seen in this overall plan. (1) The energy management system is so hard to adapt to the development needs that the overall plan will be easily split; as a result, the critical system will be altered with neither timetable nor roadmap, and the top level system design will get imperfect. (2) The target of the natural gas industrial chain's structural development is so ambiguous that it becomes extremely hard to judge the future trend. For instance, there is even no any clear cut viewpoint yet on how to regulate the integration of the upstream, midstream and downstream of the manufacturers.