基于蒙特卡罗法的施工成本扰动风险研究

针对项目施工过程中成本风险对企业影响最为深远这一问题,利用蒙特卡罗方法对工程项目施工阶段成本的风险特性进行有效分析。而依据成本分析的蒙特卡罗方法建立的工程项目成本风险指标体系的模型,能够对成本进行估算能够达到预期效果,不仅有助于提高投资决策的可靠性,而且有助于了解项目所承受的各种风险,便于提出各种措施提高应对项目成本风险的能力。

RESEARCH ON THE RISK OF CONSTRUCTION COST BASED ON THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD

There are many uncertainties risk on the construction processes in project especially for the development for enterprise. It has the intuitive characteristic in using the Monte Carlo method on the researching of project cost in construction risk. Has established the engineering project investment risk indicator system based on cost analysis＇s Monte Carlo method,carries on the estimate to the cost to be able to achieve the expectation effect, is not only helpful to the enhancement investment decision reliability, moreover is helpful each kind of risk which withstands in the understanding project, is advantageous proposed that each measure enhancement deals with the item cost risk ability.