| 我国石油工业可持续发展的系统动力学模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘妍,王宇奇.我国石油工业可持续发展的系统动力学模型研究[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2004,9(6):79-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘妍 王宇奇 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨理工大学,经济管理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150040;哈尔滨理工大学,经济管理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150040 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省软科学攻关项目(GZ02D101) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对资源和环境是影响石油工业可持续发展的主要问题，运用系统动力学理论，根据石油工业本身的特点，阐明了石油工业可持续发展的因果关系，构造了石油工业可持续发展的系统动力学模型．经过模型模拟分析，在现有的生产和消费水平下，将在2100年甚至更早的时间内出现石油危机，并指出了石油工业的发展必须与资源环境保护水平适应．
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| 关 键 词： | 石油工业 系统动力学 可持续发展 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-2683(2004)06-0079-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月14日 |
On System Dynamic Model of Sustainable Development of China's Oil Industry |
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| LIU Yan,WANG Yu-qi.On System Dynamic Model of Sustainable Development of China's Oil Industry[J].Journal of Harbin University of Science and Technology,2004,9(6):79-82. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan WANG Yu-qi |
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| Abstract: | Resource and environment are the main factors affecting the development of oil industry. By using the principle of system dynamics, this paper analyzes and interprets the logic causality of oil industry' s sustainable development combined with the characteristics of oil industry, and forms a system dynamic model of oil industry's sustainable development. By the imitative analysis with the model, it turns out such a result: under the same demand and consumption level, oil crisis will come into sight by the year 2100 or even earlier. This paper points out that the sustainable development of oil industry should meet the requirement of resource and environment. |
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| Keywords: | oil industry system dynamics sustainable development |
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