外部风险源作用下电力系统自组织临界性分析

为了明晰电力系统大停电的内部风险源和外部风险源,讨论了全球变暖、地质灾害等外部风险源对电力系统发、输、配等环节稳定性的危害.通过对北美电网停电数据、地震灾害电网损坏数据的统计,得出全球变暖等外部风险源引发故障集中爆发是导致大停电事故的首要原因.分析了配电网故障数据,结果表明在强降水等极端事故下,配电网故障集中爆发是大停电损失负荷具有自组织临界性的重要原因.

Analysis of Self-Organized Criticality of Power System under External Risks

In order to clarify the internal risks and external risks of power system blackout, the influence of global warming, geological disasters and other external risks on the stability of power generation, transmission and distribution in power system were discussed. According to the data of blackout and damage in earthquakes of North American grid, the leading cause of extreme blackout is that faults concentrated outbreak due to external risks, such as global warming. The results of faults analysis of power distribution network show that under the extreme precipitation, a number of faults breaking out at the same time is the important reason for self-organized criticality （SOC） feature.