基于敏感点分布的边坡可靠度分析

针对粘性土边坡失效概率计算问题,提出了基于敏感点分布和条件随机场的分析方法,首先采用强度折减法对边坡稳定进行确定性有限元分析,从而找到边坡安全系数的敏感点区域,然后利用条件随机场理论计算敏感点分布下的边坡失效概率,并与传统无条件随机场理论的计算结果进行比较,说明如果敏感点区域实测数据中只存在弱土时,按条件随机场计算的失效概率远大于按无条件随机场计算的失效概率。

Analysis of Slope Reliability Based on Sensitive Point Locations

To deal with calculation of failure probability in cohesive soil slope, an approach was proposed based on sensitive point locations and conditional random fields. In the approach, the strength reduction method was adopted to perform deterministic finite element analysis of slope stability so that the sensitive point zone can be found. Then, slope failure probability based sensitive point locations was calculated by using conditional random field theory, which is compared with the result calculated by using the traditional unconditional random field theory. The result indicates that if measured soil data in sensitive point zone are all weak soil, the failure probability calculated by the conditional random field is much greater than that calculated by the unconditional random field.