基于AHP-模糊综合评判的 岩溶隧道施工风险性评价

岩溶隧道施工受岩体质量、地下水和开挖方法等多种因素影响。为评价岩溶区隧道施工风险，将影响因素分成3个类别和10个因子，并基于层次分析法和模糊数学建立了二级综合评判模型。通过选取梯形分布的隶属函数确定各种因素在不同风险等级中的隶属度，并以四川省某特长隧道为计算实例，计算分析出该工程的施工风险性。与超前预报结果进行对比分析发现，评估结果较为一致，表明该评价结果可以为施工作业提供一定的依据。

Construction Risk Evaluation of Karst Tunnels Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment

The construction of Karst tunnel is affected by such factors as rock mass quality, groundwater and excavation method. In order to study the risk of tunnel construction in karst area, the influencing factors are divided into three categories and ten factors, and a two-level comprehensive evaluation model is established based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. By selecting the membership function of trapezoidal distribution, the membership degree of various factors in different risk levels is determined. Taking a super-long tunnel in Sichuan Province as an example, the construction risk of the project is calculated and analyzed, and compared with the results of advanced prediction. It is found that the evaluation results are consistent, which shows that the evaluation results can provide a certain basis for construction operations.