MM5在黄河流域降水和气温预报中的应用

基于NCEP再分析资料,利用中尺度数值预报模式MM5开展了黄河流域降水和气温预报工作,对其在2011年渭河流域典型降水过程及2011年宁蒙河段和黄河下游的气温预报效果进行分析检验。结果表明:MM5对渭河流域雨区分布、强度及强降水中心位置和量级的预报与实况比较吻合,模式能够正确反映渭河流域汛期降水的空间分布特征;对于气温预报,随着预报时效的延长,误差增大,但平均误差范围均在允许的误差范围内,尤其是对内蒙古河段凌情预报的关键站点-包头站,预报效果最佳。

Application of MM5 in forecast of rain and temperature in the Yellow river

Based on NCEP reanalysis data,the paper used the mesoscale numerical model MM5 to carry out the forecast work of rain and temperature in the Yellow river.It analyzed the forecast effectiveness of the typical precipitaion process in the Weihe river in 2011 and the temperature in the Inner Mongolisa section and downstream of the Yellow River in 2011.The result indicates that the forecast of precipitation distrubution and strength,as well as the magnitude and the location of heavy rainfall center in the Weihe river is in good accordance with the real situation.MM5 products can correctly reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of flood season precipitation in the Weihe river;for the temperature forecast, with the increase of forecast period, the error increases, but the mean error range is in the scope of permissible error. The forecast effectiveness is the best Especially for Baotou staion which is the key site in the ice regime forecast of the Inner Mongolisa section.