基于数量化理论I的双护盾TBM掘进速度预测研究

以甘肃引洮一期工程9#隧洞为例，引入数量化理论I的建模原理和方法，建立了定性数据包括围岩类别和地下水情况2个解释变量，定量数据包括单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、泊松比和变形模量4个解释变量的预测模型，研究了双护盾TBM施工掘进速度的影响因素，并从理论上证实了该预测模型的可靠性。结果表明：在同等围岩力学参数条件下，围岩稳定性越好越有利于TBM的施工，反之则会阻碍施工进度，且阻碍效应会随着地下水的增多而增强；岩石的泊松比、抗拉强度对TBM掘进速度呈显著正效应，而单轴抗压强度和变形模量呈负效应。通过对实测值和预测值的比较发现，二者掘进速度的相对误差绝对值为0.23%~5.38%，平均值为0.39%，说明预测模型用于双护盾TBM掘进速度的预测是可靠的，并可用于同类工程施工进度的预测和工程进度的控制管理。

Research on forecast of driving speed of double-shield TBM based on quantitative theory I

Taking the 9# tunnel of Tao River diversion project phase one in Gansu province for example,the paper introduced the modeling principle and method of quantitative theory.It set up the qualitative data including two explanatory variables of classification of surrounding rock and groundwater conditions, and the quantitative data including four explanatory variables of uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, Poisson's ratio and deformation modulus so as to study the influence factors of driving speed of TBM in double shields and verify the reliability of the prediction modelin theory.The results showed that under the same condition of mechanical parameters of surrounding rock,the better the stability of surrounding rock,the more favorable the construction of TBM,otherwise it will hinder the construction schedule and the negative effect of the uniaxial compressive strength enhanced with the increase of groundwater;the tensile strength index and Poisson's ratio of rock has significant positive effect to driving speed of TBM, the uniaxial compressive strength and deformation modulus shows a negative effect.By comparing the measured driving speed with the predicted one,it found that the absolute value of relative error between them is 0.23%~ 5.38%, the average value is 0.39%,which illustrated that the prediction of driving speed for double-shield TBM by the forecast model is reliable.The model can be used to forecast the construction progress and control management of project progress of similar projection.