新疆阿克苏河流域的干湿特征分析

结合新疆阿克苏河流域1960-2011年4个气象站逐月降水资料,利用Z指数进行干湿情况分析,划分了干湿等级。运用MK非参数检验方法、分摊熵和Morlet小波分别对不同时间尺度(年、季、月)干湿趋势变化以及流域的干湿周期规律进行分析。结果表明:在20世纪90年代左右存在由干到湿的转变过程;月尺度上,各站Z指数总体呈不显著上升趋势;季尺度上,秋季Z指数呈显著上升趋势,U值通过了95%的显著性检验;年尺度上,各站Z指数总体呈显著上升趋势;阿克苏河流域存在14年左右的年代干湿周期和5年左右的年际干湿周期。

Analysis of dry and wet characteristics of Aksu river basin in Xinjiang

Combining the monthly precipitation data of four weather stations from 1960 to 2011 in Aksu River Basin ,the paper divided dry and wet levels by Z index and analyzed the dry wet trend and dry wet cycle regularity in different time scales (annual,quarterly,monthly) by using the MK non parametric test, apportionment entropy and Morlet wavelet method. The results show that in the 1990s,there was a process from dry to wet; on monthly scale, Z index of each station is not significant upward trend in general; on quarter scale, Z index in autumn shows a significant upward trend, the value of U passes the significance test of 95%; on annual scale, Z index of each station shows a trend of significant increase; there are about 5 years dry wet cycles and 14 years interannual dry wet cycles in Aksu river basin.