定量风险评估技术在石化项目安全评价中的应用

定量风险评估是指通过对系统或设备的失效概率和失效后果的严重程度进行量化分析,进而精确描述系统的风险。本文介绍了定量风险评估的概念、核心内容及评估方法,总结了国内外定量风险评估的发展过程及现状,对定量风险评估的科研现状进行了简要概括。结合国内现状,本文提出了国内定量风险评估可开展的方向以供探讨。

Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment on Petro -chemical Safety Assessment Projects

Quantitative risk assessment was a quantitative method of analyzing the system or equipment failure proba- bility and failure consequence, and the accurate system＂ risk could be described. The conception, core contents and analy- sis method about quantitative risk assessment were introduced, and the internal and international development process and current situation, and the research situation of quantitative risk assessment were summerized. Based on the internal situa- tion, the developing directions in quantitative risk assessment for discussion were proposed.