电-气互联系统预测-校正型仿射能流算法

综合能源系统能流耦合渐趋紧密，与此同时可再生能源和负荷需求的强不确定性对系统能流分析提出了挑战。因此，提出一种电-气互联系统(IEGS)仿射型区间能流算法，在仿射能流计算结果中保留噪声元特征，通过噪声元系数分析各独立不确定因素对系统状态变量的影响程度。建立电、气子系统仿射模型及能流方程。提出基于域收缩思想的IEGS预测-校正型仿射能流算法，根据灵敏度对状态量的解域进行保守的预测，并构建优化模型对解域进行压缩校正。同时，采用多能流分布式迭代方法进行求解，其无须考虑复杂耦合网络中的多能流计算顺序。最后通过仿真验证了所提方法在保守性、计算效率方面的优势，并量化分析了不确定因素对系统状态量的影响。

Prediction-correction affine energy flow algorithm of integrated electricity and natural gas system

The energy flow coupling of integrated energy system is getting closer. Meanwhile, the strong uncertainty of renewable energy and load demand bring challenges to the energy flow analysis of system. Therefore, an affine interval energy flow algorithm of the integrated electricity and natural gas system(IEGS) is proposed, which preserves the characteristics of noise elements in the calculation results of affine energy flow, and the influence degree of independent uncertain elements on state variables of system through noise element coefficient is analyzed. The affine models and energy flow equations of electricity and natural gas subsystems are established. The prediction-correction affine energy flow algorithm of IEGS based on the region contraction idea is proposed. The solution domain of state variable is conservatively predicted accor-ding to sensitivity, and the optimal model is constructed to compress and correct solution domain. Moreover, the distributed iterative method of multi-energy flow is adopted to solve the model, which does not need to consider the multi-energy flow calculation sequence in the complex coupling system. Finally, the simulative results verify the advantages of the proposed method in terms of conservatism and computational efficiency. Furthermore, the influence of uncertain element on state variables of system is quantitatively analyzed.