华法林PPK/PD模型与多元回归法剂量模型的预测准确度比较

目的：比较华法林PPK/PD模型与多元线性回归法建立的6个剂量模型的预测准确度，以期为华法林PPK/PD模型的临床应用提供参考。方法：收集本院使用华法林钠片口服抗凝治疗的住院患者的相关临床资料，分别用PPK/PD模型与其他6个模型模拟预测值。利用SPSS 23.0软件进行实测值与预测值的配对t检验，采用平均预测绝对偏差和预测偏差百分比两个评价指标并绘制预测偏差箱式图并从数据总体、不同剂量组、不同基因型组分别比较。结果：研究共纳入50例患者，7个模型中，只有PPK/PD模型、Wen等人模型和都丽萍等人模型的预测值与实测值无统计学差异（P>0.05）。PPK/PD模型的预测准确度在总体数据、低中剂量、不同基因型患者间的预测准确度更高。Wen等人模型和李传保等人模型在高剂量组中的预测准确度较高。结论：华法林PPK/PD模型临床预测性能良好，可望为华法林精准给药提供参考。

Comparison of prediction accuracy between warfarin PPK/PD model and multiple regression dose models

AIM: To provide reference for clinical application of warfarin PPK/PD model, the prediction accuracy of warfarin PPK/PD model and 6 dose models established by multiple linear regression were compared. METHODS: Clinical data of inpatients who took warfarin tablets for oral anticoagulant therapy in our hospital were collected, and the predictive values were simulated by PPK/PD model and other 6 models, respectively. SPSS 23.0 software was used for paired t-test of measured value and predicted value. MAE and percentage of prediction deviation were used to evaluate the results, and the prediction deviation box-plot was drawn to compare the total data, different dose groups and different genotypes. RESULTS: A total of 50 patients were included in the study. Among 7 models, only PPK/PD model, Wen et al., and Du Liping et al.'s model had no statistical difference in predicted values and measured values (P>0.05). The prediction accuracy of PPK/PD model was higher among the total data, low and medium doses, and patients with different genotypes.The prediction accuracy of Wen et al. 's model and Li Chuanbao et al.'s model was higher in the high-dose group. CONCLUSION: The PPK/PD model of warfarin has good clinical prediction performance, which is expected to provide reference for accurate administration of warfarin.