基于明挖法的地铁车站施工基坑坍塌风险评价

地铁车站因其复杂的施工环境和特殊的工程特点，导致施工安全事故频繁发生。为科学有效地评价地铁车站施工发生坍塌的可能性，在明挖法的视角下，运用决策实验室法、解释结构模型和贝叶斯网络模型组成混合模型，提出了一种地铁车站施工基坑坍塌风险的评价方法。利用决策实验室法计算了各事件的重要度；运用解释结构模型明确了因素间的反馈关系；应用贝叶斯网络分析软件Netica，得到基坑坍塌事故的发生概率和致因路径。该方法克服了传统概率分析方法过度依赖精确概率及不能考虑中间事件发生故障的概率对系统影响的问题，通过各事件的重要度分析结果指导风险控制工作，为地铁车站基坑坍塌风险评价提供了新的思路和方法。

Risk Assessment of Foundation Pit Collapse in Subway StationConstruction Based on Open Cut Method

The safety accidents of subway station construction occur frequently due to the complex construction environment and special engineering characteristics. In order to scientifically and effectively evaluate the possibility of collapse in subway station construction，a risk assessment method of foundation pit collapse in subway station composed of decision laboratory method，interpretive structural model，and Bayesian network model is proposed from the perspective of open cut method. Firstly，the importance of each event is calculated by the decision laboratory method. Secondly，the explanatory structural model is used to clarify the feedback relationship between factors. Finally，Bayesian network analysis software Netica is used to obtain the occurrence probability and the causal path of foundation pit collapse. This technique overcomes the problem that traditional probability analysis method relies too much on accurate probability and fail to consider the influence of the probability of the intermediate events failure on the system. This research provides guidance on risk control work and new ideas for the risk assessment of foundation pit collapse of subway stations based on the results of the importance of each event.