基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估

旱灾风险的精准、有效评估对提高区域抗旱能力和降低灾害风险具有重要意义。基于旱灾风险系统不确定性特征及旱灾风险链式传递性机理引入联系数，实现模糊风险矩阵中悲观矩阵和乐观矩阵的合成、风险等级值的计算，提出了一种基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估方法。济南市1999—2005年风险评估应用结果表明：济南市旱灾综合风险等级从1999年的超3级水平改善到2005年的接近1级的水平，在2001—2002年出现小幅波动，旱灾风险整体降低。该评估方法考虑了子系统间的相互作用，根据样本指标变化特征合成等级，据此可反映各年旱灾风险的动态变化。相较于传统的风险评估方法，新方法对各子系统旱灾风险评价等级判别得更细致，为区域旱灾风险评估提供了一种新途径。

Evaluation of regional drought risk based on fuzzy risk matrix and connection number

Accurate and effective evaluation of drought risk plays an important role in improving regional drought resistance capacity and reducing disaster risk. Based on the uncertainty characteristics of drought risk system and the chain transfer mechanism of drought risk, a regional drought risk evaluation method based on fuzzy risk matrix and connection number was proposed by introducing connection number to synthesize pessimistic matrix and optimistic matrix in fuzzy risk matrix and calculate risk grade value. The results of risk evaluation in 1999—2005 showed that the comprehensive risk level of drought in Jinan City improved from more than level 3 in 1999 to close to level 1 in 2005, and fluctuated slightly from 2001 to 2002, and the overall risk of drought tended to decrease. The evaluation method considers the interaction between subsystems, and synthesizes grades according to the change characteristics of sample indexes, so as to reflect the dynamic changes of drought risk state in each year. Compared with the traditional risk evaluation methods, the new method can distinguish the drought risk evaluation level of each sub-system and provides a new way for regional drought risk evaluation.