基于全生命周期与复杂系统脆性理论的高层建筑铝模板坍塌事故安全评价

为解决高层建筑施工中频发的铝模板坍塌事故，根据相关规范及全生命周期理论将铝模板坍塌过程定义为设计及方案编制、原材料采购、施工及管理、运营维护、拆除5个阶段，由事故调查统计总结出22个发生频率较高的铝模板坍塌事故致因因素；运用事故树分析方法（FTA）对以上因素进行梳理，结合改进层次分析法得出各级因素的权重，再基于复杂系统脆性理论进行权重分析，并采用模糊综合评价法（FCE）对铝模板的安全程度进行定量评价。结果表明，该评价模型适用于一般的铝模板工程，对找出工程中的潜在坍塌风险从而减少坍塌事故具有一定的理论指导和实践意义。

Safety Evaluation of Aluminum Formwork Collapse Accidents for High-rise Buildings Based on the Theory of Full Life Cycle and Complex System Brittleness

To solve the frequent aluminum formwork collapse accidents in the construction of high-rise buildings，this study defines the processes of aluminum formwork collapse as five stages, including design and program preparation，raw material procurement，construction and management，operation and maintenance，and demolition based on relevant specifications and the whole life cycle theory. 22 high-frequency cause factors for aluminum formwork collapse accident were summed up by accident investigation and statistics，and the above factors were sorted out by the FTA method. Afterwards, the weights of the factors at all levels were obtained by the improved AHP，and then the weights are analyzed based on the brittleness theory of complex systems. Finally, the safety degree of the aluminum formwork is quantitatively evaluated using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation（FCE）method. The results show that the evaluation model is suitable for general aluminum formwork projects. It has theoretical guidance and practical contributions for identifying potential collapse risks in projects and reducing collapse accidents.