监理企业发展现状分析及趋势预测

根据住建部发布 2010~2020 年建设工程监理统计公报的数据，应用差分法分析了监理企业数、从业人员、资质水平、承揽合同额等指标的历史变化趋势，揭示了中国监理企业发展面临的地区之间不平衡、整体资质水平和人均产值不高、人才流失严重等问题并提出了相应的应对建议，总结出整体增长和多元化的发展特点，并通过对监理企业未来 5 年的企业总数、从业人员数量和全年营业收入进行灰色模型预测，发现短期内监理行业面对上述现存问题和政策的调整仍能持续稳定地增长。

Development Status Analysis and Trend Forecast of Supervision Enterprises

Based on the data from the Statistical Bulletin of Construction Project Supervision issued by the Ministry of Housing andUrban-Rural Development for the past eleven years（ 2010~2020）， this paper applies the difference method to analyze the historicaltrends of indicators， such as the number of supervision enterprises， employees， qualification levels and contract amount. The resultsreveal the problems faced by the development of Chinese supervision enterprises， such as imbalance between regions， low overallqualification level with low per capita output value and serious brain drain. Then, corresponding countermeasures are put forward.Moreover， it also summarizes the development characteristics of overall growth and diversification. Through the gray model-basedforecast of the total number of enterprises， the number of employees and the annual operating income of the supervision enterprisesin the next five years， it is found that the supervision industry will continue to grow steadily in the short term while facing theabove-mentioned problems and policy adjustments.