基于模糊 DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC 的脚手架事故致因机理分析

为降低脚手架事故的发生，通过对常见的脚手架事故原因的分析，结合文献和专家访谈，梳理出导致脚手架事故的因素，构建了包含15 个影响因素的指标体系，集成模糊DEMATEL、ISM、MICMAC 方法分析各影响因素之间的因果关系、层级结构及作用机理。利用模糊DEMATEL 方法分析15 个因素之间的因果关系，得到综合影响矩阵；通过设置阈值，利用ISM 方法得到层次结构模型；运用MICMAC 方法，计算驱动力和依赖性，并绘制出象限图。研究表明，三违行为和设备故障是导致脚手架事故的直接原因，行政监管不到位属于最深层影响因素；管理方法及其他因素维度不仅属于深层次因素，而且不易被观测，需要重点把控。通过对脚手架事故的致因机理和传递路径的研究，可以为降低脚手架事故提供管理对策和建议。

Analysis on the Causal Mechanism of Scaffolding Accidents Based on FuzzyDematel-ISM -MICMAC

To reduce scaffolding accidents，through the analysis of the causes of the accidents related to common scaffold，combining literature and expert interview，this paper identified worksite accident factors，and then built a novel index system，including 15 factors. Fuzzy DEMATEL，ISM，MICMAC methods were integrated to analyze the causal relationships among variousinfluencing factors，as well as their hierarchical structure and action mechanism. The fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to analyzethe causal relationships among the 15 factors，and the comprehensive influence matrix was obtained. By setting a threshold，thehierarchical structure model was obtained by using ISM method. MICMAC method was used to calculate the driving force anddependence，and draw the quadrant graph. The results show that the three violations and equipment failures are the direct causes ofscaffolding accidents，and the administrative supervision is not in place. Management methods and other factors are not onlydeep-seated factors，but also difficult to be observed and need to be controlled. Through the study of the cause mechanism andtransmission path of scaffolding accidents，it can provide management countermeasures and suggestions for reducing scaffoldingaccidents.