Simulation of the St. Francis Dam-Break Flood

A two-dimensional (2D) simulation of flooding from the 1928 failure of St. Francis Dam in southern California is presented. The simulation algorithm solves shallow-water equations using a robust unstructured grid Godunov-type scheme designed for wetting and drying and achieves good results. Flood extent and flood travel time are predicted within 4 and 10% of observations, respectively. Representation of terrain by the mesh is identified as the dominant factor affecting accuracy, and an iterative process of mesh refinement and convergence checks is implemented to minimize errors. The most accurate predictions are achieved with a uniformly distributed Manning n = 0.02. A 50% increase in n increases travel time errors to 25% but has little effect on flood extent predictions. This highlights the challenge of a priori travel time prediction but robustness in flood extent prediction when topography is well resolved. Predictions show a combination of subcritical and supercritical flow regimes. The leading edge of the flood was supercritical in San Francisquito Canyon, but due to channel tortuosity, the wetting front reflected off canyon walls causing a transition to subcritical flow, considerably larger depths, and a standing wave in one particular reach that accounts for a 30% fluctuation in discharge. Elsewhere, oblique shocks locally increased flood depths. The 2D dam-break model is validated by its stability and accuracy, conservation properties, ability to calibrate with a physically realistic and simple resistance parametrization, and modest computational cost. Further, this study highlights the importance of a dynamic momentum balance for dam-break flood simulation.