基于区域非序贯仿真的配电系统可靠性评估

在配电系统可靠性评估中,采用蒙特卡罗仿真法可以计算各类指标的概率分布,从而提供比期望值指标更多的有关负荷点和系统可靠性水平的信息。结合配电系统的结构特点,根据分区思想划分复杂配电网络,提出了准区域仿真和简化区域仿真两种非序贯蒙特卡罗法。通过对分区系统进行状态抽样,获得分区模型的可靠性参数,再运用前推回推法计算负荷点可靠性指标和系统可靠性指标。算例中分析了不同网络结构对计算速度的影响,比较了两种区域仿真法的计算结果,表明了文中方法的有效性。

Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Based on Zone Non-sequential Simulation

The probability distribution of various indices can be calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method in reliability assessment. Therefore more information about the load-points and the whole system reliability levels are indicated. Based on an analysis of the characteristics of the distribution networks, the feeder partition method is used to decompose the complex systems. Two kinds of zone non-sequential simulation methods are proposed, namely, the pseudo zone simulation method and the simplified zone simulation method. Reliability parameters are obtained through state sampling on the feeder partition model. A back/forward sweep algorithm is introduced for load-points and system indices calculations. The influence of network configuration on the calculation speed is analyzed in case studies, and the results of the two simulation methods are compared. The application shows the validity of the method proposed in this paper.