风险分析的灰色-随机风险率方法研究

本文基于概率论和灰色系统理论方法，定义了灰色概率、灰色概率分布、灰色概率密度、灰色期望及灰色方差等基本概念，针对系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性，建立了风险分析的灰色-随机风险率方法。在该方法中，作者将风险率的不确定性归因于系统的灰色不确定性，将系统性能函数变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，并用灰色-随机风险率来量化系统失效的风险性。最后，将灰色-随机风险率转换成一般的随机风险率，进而用改进一阶二矩法进行计算。作为算例文中给出了该方法应用于嘉陵江苍溪段有机污染风险率的估算。

Grey-stochastic risk method for risk analysis

The concepts of grey probability, grey probability distribution, grey probability density, grey expectation and grey variance are defined based on the theory of probability and grey system approach. The method of grey-stochastic risk for system risk analysis is established. In this method, the uncertainty of system risk is attributed to grey uncertainty of system, the variables of system performance function are treated with grey probability distributions and the system hazard is quantified with grey-stochastic risk. The grey-stochastic risk can be transformed into ordinary stochastic risk and computed using advanced first-order second-moment method. An example of application is given.