基于改进物元分析法的岸线开发利用风险评估

在界定岸线开发利用风险内涵和要求的基础上,构建包括水质污染、生态环境、工程安全、管理与应急能力4个方面共20个指标的岸线开发利用风险评估指标体系。运用层次分析法确定指标的主观权重,运用熵权法确定客观权重,并通过最小相对信息熵原理得到组合权重,基于灰关联改进物元分析法建立岸线开发利用风险评估模型,对长江南京段岸线开发利用进行风险评估。结果表明:改进物元分析法可有效评估岸线开发利用风险水平,评估结果符合实际情况；长江南京段岸线开发利用整体处于较低风险级别,岸线管护效果良好,但应重点防范生态环境风险,可通过优化岸线布局、落实岸线清理整治工作以及开展岸线生态保护和修复,进一步降低岸线开发利用风险水平。

Risk assessment of shoreline development and utilization based on improved matter element analysis method

On the basis of defining the risk connotation and requirements of shoreline development and utilization, a risk assessment index system for shoreline development and utilization was constructed, including 20 indicators in the four aspects of water pollution, ecological environment, engineering safety, and management and emergency response capabilities. The analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method were used to determine the subjective and objective weight, respectively.The combined weight was obtained through the principle of minimum relative information entropy. Based on the gray relational improved matter element analysis method, a risk assessment model for shoreline development and utilization was established, which was applied to the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River. The results show that the improved matter element analysis method can effectively evaluate the risk level of shoreline development and utilization with realistic assessment outcome.The shoreline of Nanjing section has an overall low development and utilization risk with good management, but preventing ecological environmental risks should be focused on. The risk level of shoreline development and utilization can be further reduced by optimizing the layout, implementing the cleanup and remediation, carrying out the ecological protection and restoration.