| 基于Pearson相关性检验的ARIMA边坡位移监测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡添翼,杨光,陈波,俞扬,陶园.基于Pearson相关性检验的ARIMA边坡位移监测模型[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(1):71-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡添翼 杨光 陈波 俞扬 陶园 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.河海大学水利水电学院，江苏南京210098；2.水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术
重点实验室，江苏南京210029） |
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| 摘 要： | 在运用传统ARIMA预测模型的基础上,引入Pearson相关性检验,定量分析了空间上不同测点位移之间的相关性,判断了被监测区域在空间上是否有整体位移或者局部位移的趋势,以便能对被监测区域空间整体的位移性态进行更全面地掌握。实例分析表明,该模型的预测能力较好,能较准确地预测边坡位移,并能有效辨别边坡整体位移情况及稳定状态。
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| 关 键 词： | Pearson相关检验 位移 ARIMA模型 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-05-07 |
Pearson correlation test-based ARIMA model of displacement prediction |
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| HU Tianyi,YANG Guang,CHEN Bo,YU Yang,TAO Yuan.Pearson correlation test-based ARIMA model of displacement prediction[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2016,47(1):71-75. |
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| Authors: | HU Tianyi YANG Guang CHEN Bo YU Yang TAO Yuan |
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| Affiliation: | （1.College of Water Conservancy & Hydropower Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing210098，Jiangsu, China；2.Key Laboratory
of Earth-Rock Dam Failure Mechanism and Safty Control Techniques, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing210029, Jiangsu, China） |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the application of the conventional ARIMA prediction model，Pearson correlation test is introduced to quantitatively analyze the correlation among the displacements at various testing points，and then whether the trends of the spatial integral displacement or local displacement are there within the monitored area is judged，so as to more overall obtain the behavior of the spatial integral displacement within the monitored area. The relevant case analysis shows that the prediction capacity of the model is better，thus can more correctly predict slope displacement and effectively distinguish the integral displacement and the stability of a slope. |
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| Keywords: | Pearson correlation test displacement ARIMA model prediction |
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