黄金市场供需格局与金价走势

金价是市场供需作用的结果，对金价走势的分析应从世界黄金市场的供需格局加以研究。黄金非货币化后，全球矿产金量大幅度增长，2002年略有下降，但今后一段时期仍会小幅度增长。随着世界黄金存量的增长，再生金供应将持续增长。由于全球黄金储备量较大，央行售金对市场仍将产生中长期的影响。首饰用金是市场需求主要力量，但目前缺乏新兴的消费市场，已经失去了增长的动力。其他工业用金基本稳定，增长不明显，而且有些年度还有所下降。生产商对冲需求和投资性需求，主要取决于市场状况。面对增长的供应量以及停滞不前的需求量，金价将面临严峻的考验，但由于矿产金不能满足市场，受价值规律的影响，金价走势将呈周期性波动，其振动幅度的大小主要与当时的政治、经济、金融等因素有很大关联。

The supply-demand structure of gold market and trend of gold price

The gold price results from the action of gold supply and demand in market so the analysis of gold price must be begun by studying supply demand structure of world gold market.Since the demonetization of gold ,the world output of mined gold has grown in big way(only slight dropping in 2002), and it will grow in small scale from sometime afterward.The supply of regenerated gold will continuously grow with the growing of world gold accumulation.Since the world gold reserve is greater,the gold sales from central bank are going to influence the gold market in a middle or long run.The ornamental gold is the main force of demand in market,yet the new arised market falls short at present time.As a result,the gold demand lose its motive force of growing.As for the demand of industrial gold,it not only presented stable state,but also descended slightly for some years.In the condition of growing supply and stagnant demand of gold,the gold price will go through severe test.On the other hand,the mined gold fails to satisfy market demand and is dominated by law of value,the gold price will fluctuate cyclically.The range of fluctuation will be concerned greatly with political,economic and financial factors at the given period.