疏松砂岩油层出砂问题的Monte-Carlo模拟

石油开采过程中，由于水动力的冲刷等作用引起的疏松砂岩储层出砂，会导致储层损害和产能降低，甚至造成套管损坏，油井报刻度。通过分析疏松砂岩油藏出砂发生和发展的机理，设计了出砂预测的数学模型，在此基础上，用Monte-Carlo法模拟疏松砂岩油藏出砂的发生和发展。孔隙介质的渗流数服从给定分布的随机变量。模拟结果表明，在同一生产压差下，出砂几率随并距的缩短而增大，当井距一定时，随着生产压差的增大，出砂几率增大；储层越不均匀，出砂的几率越大，但是扩展到大量出砂的几率较小，反之，储层越均匀，油藏出砂的几率越小，但是扩展到大量出砂的几率却越大，总之油藏是否出砂，不仅与生产压差有关，还的几率却越大。总之油藏是否出砂，不仅与生产压差有关，还取决于储层的非均质程度，随机模拟的结果很好地实验上印证。

Monte-Carlo simulation of sand production in unconsolidated sandstone reservoir

During oil production, sand production in loose sandstone reservoir because of fluid washout often causes formation damage and production drop, sometimes as worse as casing damage and well abandonment. By analyzing the mechanism of sand production, a mathematic model for forecasting it is given, and Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate sand production based on this model. Stimulation results show that the probability increases with the shortening of well spacing under the same production differential, while in the same well spacing, it increases with the rise of production differential. Moreover, sand production is also related to the heterogeneous degree of reservoir. The stimulation results meet well with the results of laboratory tests.