俄罗斯与天然气出口过境国的争端和启示

俄罗斯是世界上最重要的天然气生产和出口国之一,其天然气探明储量为44.8×1012m3,约占全球总量的23.9%。然而由于缺少直通消费国的输气管道,绝大部分天然气出口必须过境第三国。近年来,俄罗斯与乌克兰、白俄罗斯、土耳其、波兰等主要出口过境国在过境费、天然气价格、债务和贷款等问题上冲突不断,影响了俄罗斯对主要天然气消费市场的供应,成为制约俄罗斯天然气工业发展的不利因素。为了消除天然气出口的"瓶颈",俄罗斯开始加强与消费国的联系,提出绕过第三方的输气管道方案;而过境国也使出浑身解数,希望利用自己在俄罗斯天然气出口中的作用获得更多利益。我国已成为名副其实的能源进口大国,因此俄罗斯与其天然气出口过境国和欧洲间的博弈,对我国的能源安全有重要的借鉴意义。从长期来看,天然气很可能在世界一次能源消费从化石燃料向非化石燃料的过渡中发挥重要作用,我国应从国家和石油公司两个层面重视天然气生产,优化能源结构;应加快实现我国油气进口来源地和运输途径的多元化;能源进口单位应提高公关意识,特别是危机公关,处理好与供应国和过境国之间的关系;同时应增加天然气储备,建立国家层面的战略储备和企业层面的调峰储备。

Disputes between Russia and Gas Export Transit States and Lessons for China

Russia is one of the most important natural gas producers and exporters with 44.8×10^12m3 of proven gas reserves,accounting for about 23.9% of the world＇s total.Due to a lack of pipelines directly running into gas consuming countries,the majority of natural gas exported by Russia must transit a third country.In recent years,Russia has been involved in frequent disputes with its major gas export transit countries such as Ukraine,Belarus,Turkey and Poland over transit charges,natural gas price,debts and loans.These disputes have affected Russia＇s stable gas supplies to main natural gas consumer markets and posed a restraint on the growth of Russia＇s natural gas industry.In order to remove the bottleneck in natural gas export,Russia has strengthened its tie with gas-consuming countries and proposed gas pipeline plans to bypass a third country and transit countries have also used every conceivable means to gain interests by taking advantage of their roles in Russia＇s natural gas export.China is now a major energy importer.Russia＇s negotiations with its gas export transit countries and Europe offer important lessons for China to learn to ensure its energy securi- ty.In the long term,natural gas will very likely play a big role in the transition of the world＇s primary ener- gy source to non-fossil fuels from fossil fuels.China should put a premium on natural gas production,at both corporate and national levels,and optimize the country＇s energy mix.China should also accelerate its step of diversifying oil and gas import sources and transport means.Energy importers should strengthen their awareness of public relations ,particularly public relations in crisis ,and maintain amicable relationships with both energy suppliers and transit countries.China should also increase its natural gas reserves by establishing national strategic reserves and corporate peak-shaving reserves.