基于BIOCHLOR模型的敏感度分析

BIOCHLOR是一种用于模拟地下水溶解质运移的模型，它被广泛用于一维平流、三维弥散、线性吸附，及还原脱氯的生物转化过程分析。选取该模型7个参数模块中的平流参数模块、扩散参数模块、吸附参数模块、生物降解参数模块（一阶序列降解系数）4个参数，在其他参数不变的情况下，依次改变各个参数的值并运行模型，获取并比较模拟预测值，即污染羽内溶解质浓度。并分别绘出模拟预测值与各个分析参数的变化曲线，分析模型对各个参数的响应程度，从而为处理不确定因素（如误差等）提供依据。

Sensitivity Analysis Based on BIOCHLOR Model

BIOCHLOR is an easy-to-use screening model that simulates remediation by natural attenuation(RNA) of dissolved solvents at chlorinated solvent release sites.Programmed in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet environment and based on Domenico analytical solute transport model,the software is widely applied to simulate 1-D advection,3-D dispersion,linear adsorption,and biotransformation via reductive dechlorination.This model includes seven parameter modules: advection data,dispersion data,adsorption data,biotransformation data,general data,source data,and field data for comparison.The values of advection data,dispersion data,adsorption data,and biotransformation data are respectively changed while the others are kept constant to compare the simulated values.Variation diagrams of the simulated value are drawn to analyze the levels of model response to each parameter.The purpose of sensitive analysis is to test the level of the influence of parameters,and to analyze the annoyance level of error.If the parameter sensitivity in a certain model is not high,allowable error threshold can be bigger;on the contrary,the minor differences of parameters can lead to disparity in the results and decrease of simulation forecast precision.More efforts and funds should be invested for the highly-accurate parameters.