An approach to combining unreliable pieces of evidence and their propagation in a system response analysis |
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| Authors: | Igor O Kozine Lev V Utkin |
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| Affiliation: | a Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000, Roskilde, Denmark;b Department of Computer Science, Institutski per. 5, Forest Technical Academy, St. Petersburg 194021, Russian Federation |
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| Abstract: | The paper describes an approach to representing, aggregating and propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through computational models. The framework for the approach employs the theory of imprecise coherent probabilities. The approach is exemplified by a simple algebraic system, the inputs of which are uncertain. Six different uncertainty situations are considered, including mixtures of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. |
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| Keywords: | Epistemic uncertainty Imprecise coherent probabilities Combining evidence Propagating uncertainty |
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