区域能源安全复杂性的理论分析框架与实证研究

从区域能源安全的复杂性入手,运用复杂科学理论,阐述了区域能源安全系统的复杂性特征,探讨了区域能源安全的路径依赖及其解决途径,文章运用复杂性科学的方法和模型,提出了基于人—地关系的区域能源安全复杂性框架模型。借助该框架模型以区域能源安全功能分区为例展开实证分析。区域能源安全作为一个复杂系统,在能源结构、经济增长、科技创新和高碳能源方面,具有明显的路径依赖,为此,必须坚持走能源结构优质化、节能降耗、循环利用以及科技创新的综合途径,大力开辟低碳或无碳化能源。实证分析显示,沿海和长江中游地区是能源最不安全区;能源较不安全区散布于东中西地区;区域能源安全区主要分布于西部的青海、宁夏、四川、贵州和云南5省(市、自治区);而区域能源富裕区则集中分布于"三北"地区。

Theoretical Analysis Framework and Empirical Study on Regional Energy Security in Prospective of Science of Complexity

This article explores some complexity characteristics of regional energy security in prospective of complexity science including complexities of energy security system and its self-organization.It discusses some particular path dependences and their solutions of regional energy security,and then puts forward a complexity framework of regional energy security based on the human-earth relationship by ways of methods and models in the science of complexity.On the basis of this framework,this paper conducts empirical analysis on regional energy security function zoning.The results of empirical analysis shows that the coastal and Yangtze River regions are the most energy insecurity areas in China,less secure areas of energy distributed equally among Eastern,Central and Western regions of China,regional energy security zone is mainly concentrated in Western areas including Qinghai,Ningxia,Sichuan,Guizhou and Yunnan provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions）,while energy-rich areas are distributed in the ＂Three North＂ areas of China.