| 河南省烤烟生产波动及其成因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李富欣,许自成,赵建州,黄元炯,邓蒙芝. 河南省烤烟生产波动及其成因分析[J]. 中国烟草学报, 2008, 14(2): 39-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李富欣 许自成 赵建州 黄元炯 邓蒙芝 |
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| 作者单位： | 1 河南农业大学农学院, 郑州市文化路95号, 450002; |
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| 摘 要： | 运用HP滤波法对1978年-2005年河南烤烟生产进行了长期趋势和短期波动分析,利用逐步回归方法对河南省烤烟产量波动的影响因素进行了分析,结果表明,烤烟移栽面积及受灾面积是引起烤烟生产波动的主要原因,因此熨平烤烟生产波动一要稳定移栽面积,二要加强基础设施建设,同时要注意发挥价格的导向作用,并考虑建立"补贴于土"的政策,实现植烟土地的可持续利用。
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| 关 键 词： | 烤烟 生产波动 HP滤波法 逐步回归 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5708(2008)02-0039-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-08-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-08-22 |
Analysis of factors influencing flue-cured tobacco production in Henan province |
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| LI Fu-xin,XU Zi-cheng,ZHAO Jian-zhou,HUANG Yuan-jong,DENG Meng-zhi. Analysis of factors influencing flue-cured tobacco production in Henan province[J]. Acta Tabacaria Sinica, 2008, 14(2): 39-44 |
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| Authors: | LI Fu-xin XU Zi-cheng ZHAO Jian-zhou HUANG Yuan-jong DENG Meng-zhi |
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| Affiliation: | 1 Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China;2 Henan Provincial Tobacco Company, Zhengzhou 450008, China;3 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 101000, China |
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| Abstract: | Long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of flue-cued tobacco production in Henan province during 1978 to 2005 was studied by HP filter method.Influential factors for the fluctuation were analyzed by stepwise regression method.Results showed that the main factor for production fluctuation was the transplanting and disaster areas of flue-cured tobacco.Measures to decrease the fluctuation were proposed such as stabilization of planting areas, strengthening of infrastructure, exertion of price-oriented effect, and sustainable utilization of tobacco growing soil through subsidy policy. |
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