| 城市用水量预测模型综合研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雄,党志良,张贤洪,马丁.城市用水量预测模型综合研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2005,16(4):24-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雄 党志良 张贤洪 马丁 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学,水利水电学院,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 从分析城市用水量变化规律着手，给出了城市用水量预测的常用模型，并以此为基础分析了选择用水量预测模型时所需考虑的影响因素。最后，以西安市日用水量预测为例，建立了三阶自回归预测模型，经与实测值对比检验，精度较高，可用于供水系统调度管理。
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| 关 键 词： | 用水量时间序列 用水量预测 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-643X(2005)04-0024-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年11月12 |
Comprehensive research on forecasting model of municipal water consumption |
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| ZHANG Xiong,DANG Zhi-liang,ZHANG Xian-hong,MA Ding.Comprehensive research on forecasting model of municipal water consumption[J].Journal of water resources and water engineering,2005,16(4):24-28. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiong DANG Zhi-liang ZHANG Xian-hong MA Ding |
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| Abstract: | This paper begins with analyzing the changeful regulars of municipal water consumption,and shows the normal forecasting models of that.Basing on these,the affecting factors of choosing water-use forecasting model are discussed.Finally,as an example,forecasting model on daily municipal water consumption of Xi'an is proved to be reliable. |
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| Keywords: | time series of water consumption water-use forecasting forecasting model |
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